In the realm of NFL records, the quest for the all-time total touchdown leader is a captivating journey, and Josh Allen's name is increasingly being whispered in the same breath as Tom Brady. While Myles Garrett's pursuit of Bruce Smith's sack record dominated headlines, I find myself intrigued by the possibility of Allen breaking Brady's touchdown record. It's a prospect that sparks both excitement and contemplation, leading me to explore the numbers and possibilities.
The NFL's all-time total touchdown record, currently held by Brady with 677, is a testament to his unparalleled career. However, the record's significance is somewhat overshadowed by the passing touchdown record, which is more revered due to the traditional role of quarterbacks as primary passers. Yet, the rise of mobile quarterbacks like Allen has the potential to shift this perception, making the total touchdown record a more coveted achievement.
Allen, currently 29 years old, has already scored 301 total touchdowns in the regular season. To break Brady's record, he needs to accumulate 377 more touchdowns. His current average of 2.35 touchdowns per game is remarkable, the highest in NFL history, and it's this consistency that makes the prospect of him breaking the record seem plausible.
If Allen maintains this average over the next five seasons, he'll reach 501 total touchdowns by the 2030 season. This is a realistic projection, considering his ironman streak of starting games and the potential for an 18-game season in the future, which could further boost his average.
However, the real challenge lies in Allen's ability to sustain this level of performance into his late 30s. From Brady's age 35 season to his retirement at 45, he threw 349 touchdowns, a testament to his longevity. Allen, if he reaches the 2036 or 2037 season, will be 35 and 176 touchdowns away from breaking the record.
The per-season touchdown averages Allen would need to achieve are impressive, especially considering the regression that typically occurs in a player's late 30s. Through the age 38 season, he'd need to average 44 touchdowns per season, and even in his 39th season, he'd need to average 35.2 touchdowns.
While these numbers may seem daunting, Allen's current trajectory and the potential for an extended career make the possibility of him breaking the record a compelling narrative. It's a story that combines the allure of breaking a record held by a legend like Brady with the intrigue of a quarterback who has already defied expectations.
In my opinion, the prospect of Allen breaking the all-time total touchdown record is a fascinating one, and it's a narrative that will continue to unfold as he navigates the challenges of a long and successful NFL career. It's a story that, personally, I find both captivating and thought-provoking, raising questions about the future of quarterback records and the impact of mobile playmakers on the NFL landscape.
